Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side find themselves atop the Premier League at Christmas this year, with a five-point advantage over Manchester City.
So how often does the team top of the English top-flight at Christmas go on to win the title at the end of that season?
Thirteen of the last 18 teams to be in first place on Christmas Day have ended the season as Premier League champions, including Manchester City last season.
But for Arsenal, their recent record of continuing their success after Christmas hasn’t been too great. On the last four occasions that they have been top of the English top-flight on Christmas Day (2007-08, 2002-03, 1989-90 and 1986-87) they have failed to win the title that season. The last occasion – 2007-08 – they finished that campaign in third place, five points behind champions Manchester United, despite holding a one-point lead over the Red Devils on Christmas Day in 2007.
This is the fifth time that Manchester City have not been top at Christmas under Pep Guardiola, but on two of the previous four occasions they have gone on to recover and win the title. In 2018-19 they found themselves four points off the top on Christmas Day but ended up winning the title by a point, while they won the title in 2020-21 by a mammoth margin of 12 points over rivals Man Utd, despite being in eighth place and eight points off the top of the league on Christmas Day in 2020.
A crumb of comfort for Arsenal is that historically, 37 points after 14 games is a good gauge of championship potential. All six teams with 37 points or more after 14 Premier League games have won the league that season.
This is also the best it’s ever been for the Gunners. Based on three points for a win, Arsenal have never won as many as 37 points after 14 games of a top-flight season, with 2022-23’s return one more than in 2007-08 at this stage (36). It sure is exciting times at the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal’s excellent recent form has helped them reach the top of the table, with their 16 points over the last six Premier League games the joint-highest in the league and four more than rivals Manchester City.
Having lost against Brentford in their last Premier League game before the World Cup break, Man City are looking to avoid losing consecutive league games for the first time since December 2018 when they travel to Elland Road to face Leeds United on 28 December.
Meanwhile, Arsenal return to action on Boxing Day with a London derby home game against West Ham United at the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners have won their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 8-0 – they’ve not won four in a row without conceding since April/May 2014.
Mikel Arteta’s side have won each of their last nine Premier League home games, with six of these coming this season. Victory here would equal their longest winning home run from the start of a top-flight campaign, also winning their first seven in 1934-35, 2005-06 and 2017-18.
Their opponents West Ham are on the joint-worst run of form across the last six games in the Premier League (four points) and have lost their last three Premier League games – they haven’t lost four in a row within the same campaign since back in August/September 2018. They won’t be looking forward to travelling to North London on Boxing Day either, having lost 11 Premier League away games in 2022 already, their most on the road in a single calendar year since 2013 (12).
